Distribution yields could rise, but risk of Covid, higher interest rates remain.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
What has hit sentiment further is a draft proposal by the government to increase vehicle insurance premiums for financial year 2022-23 (FY23). Third-party motor insurance premiums have not been increased over the last two years and if this is approved, insurance costs for specific segments could rise by a fifth. The worst impacted is the 350cc and above two-wheeler segment, where premiums are up 21 per cent. Royal Enfield (Eicher Motor) is the market leader in the segment. The premiums in the 150-350cc two-wheeler category are also being inc
The biggest jump in earnings and decline in P/E multiples has occurred with top companies in metals and mining, corporate banking, and the oil and gas sectors.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
Owing to a big rise in the market capitalisation of group companies such as Adani Green Energy and Adani Transmission, the group promoters, the Gautam Adani family, have closed the wealth gap with Mukesh Ambani, the promoter and owner of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL). Ambani continues to top India's billionaire league table. The Ambani family's net worth was estimated to be Rs 8.06 trillion (around $108 billion) on Tuesday against the Rs 6.87 trillion (around $92 billion) of the Adani family.
Tata Motors' UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover or JLR, reported a muted operational performance in the December quarter of financial year 2021-22 (Q3FY22). The luxury carmaker saw a 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in wholesale volumes to just under 70,000 units in Q3, against estimates that were 16 per cent higher. The drop in despatches to dealers was on account of shortage in semiconductors.
The group began to outperform the broader market only with the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 while earlier it was largely keeping pace with the Sensex. The group's market cap is up 164.4 per cent since the end of March 2020 against a 105 per cent rally in the Sensex.
The Tata group companies are now more valuable than all the listed central public sector undertakings (CPSUs) or companies in the country. The key 20 listed Tata companies ended the 2021 calendar year with a combined market capitalisation of Rs 23.36 trillion, ahead of the 70 listed CPSUs, which had a combined m-cap of Rs 23.2 trillion. In comparison, these CPSUs had a combined market capitalisation of Rs 16.7 trillion at the end of December 2020 against the Tata group firms' combined m-cap of Rs 15.7 trillion.
India's top listed companies reported their best-ever quarterly net profit of Rs 2.39 trillion in the September quarter of FY22, up 46.4 per cent year-on-year. The earnings were driven by a big surge in the profitability of banks, non-banking financial companies & insurance (BFSI), oil & gas, and metal & mining firms. The combined net profit of these three cyclical sectors were up 87 per cent YoY to a record high of Rs 1.53 trillion, up from Rs 82,000 crore a year ago and Rs 1.08 trillion in Q1FY22.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
Despite unprecedented levels of uncertainty in Samvat 2077, investors have little to complain about on the returns front. The BSE Sensex delivered returns of 38 per cent in this period, while the Nifty registered a return of over 40 per cent. As is the case in bull markets, companies in the small- and mid-capitalisation basket outperformed the benchmarks, with returns almost twice those of frontliners.
'Multiplexes will thrive by Q4 if 100% capacity is restored and a third Covid wave doesn't happen.'
The government has tweaked the income tax laws to make it easier for the new owners of loss-making public sector undertakings (PSUs) to carry forward the accumulated losses and set them off against future profits. This will result in significant tax savings for the new owners if they are able to turnaround operations of the ailing PSU within a few years. This will, in turn, boost the post-tax earnings and returns for the new owners.
After the hit of the pandemic, India Inc is now worried about the adverse impact of inflation and higher commodity prices on their revenues and margins. The inflation scare is the strongest among manufacturers of consumer goods such as automobiles, consumer durables, and fast-moving capital goods (FMCG). Companies across sectors fear they will not be able to pass on the hike in input costs to their consumers due to weak demand, which, in turn, would lead to a hit on margins and profitability in the forthcoming quarters.
Its production declined for the third consecutive year in financial year 2020-21 (FY21) to an 11-year low, while sales volume contracted for the second year to the lowest since FY15. The company manufactured around 1.08 million vehicles last fiscal, a decline from 1.17 million the previous year, and a steeper fall from its all-time high tally of 1.62 million reported in FY18.
After outperforming the broader market and their public sector peers for the better part of the post-Lehman period, private sector banks - such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank - are now underperforming. Last week, the Nifty Private Bank index was up just 6 per cent year-to-date in the calendar year 2021, against nearly 13 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and a 15 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty50. Public sector (PSU) banks, such as State bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Punjab National Bank, are now rally leaders and outperforming the broader market. The Nifty PSU Bank index was up 42 per cent since the beginning of this calendar year. But on a longer term, the Nifty Private Bank index is up 101 per cent since March 2016, against a 118 per cent rally in the Bank Nifty and just 2 per cent rise in the Nifty PSU Bank index in the period.
The market's sensitivity to the US Fed's balance sheet changes makes it vulnerable to the possible tapering of the bond buying programme and the resulting stagnation or even shrinkage in the balance sheet.
Top companies have grabbed a bigger pie of their sectors in the pandemic period, leading to a further rise in market concentration in many industries as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI score, which indicates competitive intensity in an industry (or a lack of it), reached a new high in FY21 as bigger firms raised their revenue market shares either organically or through mergers and acquisitions. A higher HHI score indicates a rise in market concentration in favour of a few firms while a lower score means that the industry's revenue is more evenly divided among many companies
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